Anthony Chan
Bio
Chan Economics LLC, Public Speaker
Chief Global Economist & Public Speaker JPM Chase ('94-'19).
Senior Economist Barclays ('91-'94)
Economist, NY Federal Reserve ('89-'91)
Econ. Prof. (Univ. of Dayton, '86-'89)
Ph.D. Economics
Achievements (1)
Stories (306)
Filter by community
Path-Breaking Research Explains Low Consumer Gallup Poll Readings
If an Economist living on Mars came to the U.S. and learned that the U.S. economy expanded by 3.3% in Q4 2023 and was expected to grow by +3.4% in Q1 2024 (according to the widely respected Atlanta Fed nowcast GDP model) with an unemployment rate hovering around its lowest reading in 50 years, she would predict that consumers would be happy. Both real GDP growth rates exceeded the U.S. potential growth rate of +1.8%.
By Anthony Chan2 years ago in Trader
Misplaced Memories
The anticipation of seeing my grandkids' faces light up with joy as I embarked on my Disney World adventure was enough to keep me smiling through the entire flight. After all, it had been far too long since we last had the chance to spend quality time together. Bella and Nico, my two bundles of energy, had eagerly awaited my arrival, and I couldn't wait to shower them with love and laughter.
By Anthony Chan2 years ago in Fiction
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Will Meet This Week and Ask: “Are We There Yet?”
The answer is that monetary policy is so restrictive that the Fed could justify lowering policy rates. The Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core PCE (which measures consumer prices excluding food and energy components), is now rising at a yearly pace of +2.9% (December 2023), down from a peak growth pace of +5.6% (February 2022). The significant difference between core PCE and core CPI (Consumer Price Index) is that the former weights the price components based on the changing preferences of consumers. Suppose the price of strawberries rises and individuals switch to consuming more blueberries. In that case, blueberries will be weighted more heavily (when constructing the price index) as the shift in demand occurs.
By Anthony Chan2 years ago in Trader
Why Has Consumer Confidence Suddenly Rebounded?
The relationship between consumer confidence and the economy's performance has been a subject of intense discussion within financial markets over the past year. Why has consumer confidence been so weak while the U.S. economy appears to have expanded by 2.5% in 2023, with an unemployment rate near 50-year lows? The only logical explanation is that consumers have been upset with high inflation readings that have prevented them from maintaining their standard of living.
By Anthony Chan2 years ago in Trader
Bella and Teddy's Unbreakable Bond
Once upon a time, a little girl named Bella lived in the exciting city of Doha, Qatar, with her constant companion, a stuffed Teddy Bear named Teddy. Teddy was no ordinary bear; he had been with Bella since she was a few months old, a precious gift from Auntie Mary! Mary had spent weeks looking for the perfect companion for Bella. Only after observing her unique personality and watching Bella's actions closely was she able to decide that Teddy was the perfect suitor.
By Anthony Chan2 years ago in Fiction
A Review of My 2024 Goals, Aspirations, and Strategy
As the calendar flips to a new year, it's natural for Vocal creators to reflect on the past and turn their attention toward new and exciting horizons. The past year on Vocal has been a journey for me of creative discovery, growth, and topped by a small accolade. As in life, my experiences with Vocal over the past year will significantly shape my goals for the coming year!
By Anthony Chan2 years ago in Motivation
Strategic Homebuying: Capitalizing on Peak Mortgage Rates for Long-Term Gain
Some of the advice that every victim in a horror movie might give a prospective home buyer when mortgage rates rise to high levels is to “Stay away from the woods” (a.k.a. don’t talk to anyone trying to sell you a home), and “don’t run up the stairs” (a.k.a. don’t rush to make an offer on a house). The good news is that purchasing a home can be significantly less treacherous than what a horror victim goes through in a scary movie.
By Anthony Chan2 years ago in Trader
Mission Accomplished: Is it Too Early for the Fed to Declare Victory?
Yes, it is too early to declare victory. Still, the Federal Reserve’s jet appears to be approaching the airport with good runway visibility. In November 2023, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE deflator excluding food and energy components, saw its 12-month growth rate fall to 3.2%. That figure was almost half its peak 5.9% growth rate recorded in March 2022. While that figure remains above the Fed’s 2.0% target growth rate, the core PCE’s 6-month annualized growth rate fell to 1.9%, below the Fed’s 2.0% inflation growth target!
By Anthony Chan2 years ago in Trader
Secrets Unveiled at Sea
A cruise ship named Ocean Serenity glided through the moonlit waters, carrying Bill, Jack, Susan, and Lars on a voyage of escapism. Bill, the man of the hour, had won a fortune from a scratch-off lottery ticket and decided to take his closest friends on a cruise to celebrate life's unpredictability.
By Anthony Chan2 years ago in Criminal
