Analysis Of US-ISR- IRAN WAR
The Escalating Conflict
The situation is ongoing, and if I were to summarize the details—because data is coming very late—it's totally difficult to confirm the casualties and how much damage has been done so far. Many reporters, particularly those on Al Jazeera, are stating that footage from both Hezbollah and Israel is not being released. Similarly, in the UAE, there is an effort to prevent influencers and various reporters from sharing information. People are afraid because their business capital is at risk. Additionally, two important things that I discussed in my last blog about the "magazine depth problem" are now being acknowledged by Western media. They also agree that this war won't last for many days and will have to rely on limited strikes. Trump, however, has also stated that there is no end game for this operation, Epic Fury.
The Economist has also written on its cover that there is no clear strategy or end goal visible for this operation. What exactly do they want to achieve at the end of this operation? If we go into some data, the U.S. and Israel claim to have conducted nearly 2,500 strikes in 8 days, with about 1,300 deaths in Iran according to some reports. However, Iranian media claims that at least 100 to 200 Iranian forces have died, but the Iranian political structure, which is built on a 40-year-old system, has not collapsed yet. The political system has been able to survive for 10 days without significant breakdown.
As for Iran’s counterattacks, since February 28, Iran has launched approximately 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones. About 40% of these attacks were aimed at Israel, and 60% were targeted at U.S. military positions in the Gulf region. This means countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE—which are aligned with the U.S.—are facing constant missile and drone strikes. Iran’s leadership has stated that they regret the attacks but feel forced to act in self-defense when U.S. military operations originate from allied nations’ territories. They argue that if their land is being used for operations against Iran, they must defend themselves.
The right to self-defense becomes relevant here. If a country’s land is being used by foreign military powers for attacks, it is valid for the attacked country to defend itself. This concept is debated in the context of countries like the UAE hosting U.S. military bases. There have been several drone attacks near Dubai International Airport, and the chaos at these locations is not being reported as influencers are being blocked from sharing the truth. Saudi Arabia’s air defense forces have stated that they have intercepted about 16 drones that were headed towards the Shaybah Oil Field, one of the largest in the Middle East.
In terms of economic signals, oil prices have surged by almost 24%, and the price of crude oil has risen to $91 per barrel, which is unprecedented. Major shipping giants like Maersk have suspended operations in the Middle East, and the entire shipping industry is uncertain about how to move forward. Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz to challenge the U.S., as President Trump had previously said that U.S. military ships would escort cargo passing through the Strait. Now Iran is directly targeting and challenging this approach, saying they are waiting for the U.S. to try and escort their shipments.
Regarding oil exports, storage, and production, Iran has significantly disrupted the global supply chain. There are reports that Iran's military headquarters, parliament, state broadcasters, and even residential buildings are being targeted. The leadership stance from Trump’s side is clear: they will not stop until unconditional surrender is achieved. No Western or Arab media is reporting on the shadow war that was already ongoing but has now intensified. What's happening in Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Libya is barely covered. The media's focus on the current frontlines is creating an opportunity for more covert actions in other regions where infrastructure could be destroyed and territories seized.
About the Creator
Ibrahim Shah
I am an Assistant Professor with a strong commitment to teaching,and academic service. My work focuses on fostering critical thinking, encouraging interdisciplinary learning, and supporting student development.
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As the U.S. and Israel continue their air campaign against Iran, a growing number of analysts, officials, and local actors are discussing the possibility that Kurdish forces — not American troops — could become the “boots on the ground” in any future ground‑based phase of the conflict. This prospect has emerged not from sudden instability, but from decades of Kurdish political and military organisation, regional dynamics, and evolving strategic interests. Who Are the Kurds in This Context? The Kurds are an ethnic group of roughly 30–40 million people spread across Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran, with no sovereign state of their own, though they maintain autonomous regions in Iraq and parts of Syria and Turkey. In Iran, Kurds make up about 10 percent of the population, concentrated in the western provinces. Over many decades they have resisted the centralised rule of Tehran and engaged in intermittent armed struggle. 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Exploit existing ethnic tensions within Iran by encouraging internal dissent against the central government. Use Kurdish territorial knowledge to harass regime forces in terrain where conventional armies may be less effective. The Defense Post However, these potential benefits come with significant risks. Iran has already intensified attacks on Kurdish opposition positions, and an insurgency could draw neighbouring Iraq deeper into the conflict, destabilising the broader region. The semi‑autonomous Kurdish government in Iraq has officially denied involvement in any ground operations against Iran, underscoring the delicacy of the situation and the risk of unwanted escalation. Historical Context Matters The idea of Kurdish fighters entering Iran is rooted in long‑standing resistance movements and periodic clashes along Iran’s western frontier. Historically, Kurdish factions inside Iran have engaged in intermittent conflict with Tehran, most recently during localized insurgencies. Their diaspora communities in Iraq have long maintained ties and networks that could facilitate mobilisation if conditions align. But past alliances with external powers — including the United States — have also bred mistrust among Kurdish leaders, who recall shifting geopolitical commitments. This history complicates any decision to act purely as an auxiliary force for another power’s strategic aims. What Comes Next? At present, there is no confirmed large‑scale deployment of Kurdish fighters inside Iran, nor official acknowledgment from Iraqi Kurdish authorities that they will participate in ground combat. However, the combination of Kurdish preparedness, geopolitical interest from U.S. and Israeli planners, and the strained internal dynamics within Iran make the Kurdish factor an important variable in future iterations of the conflict. 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