U.S. strategic competition with China.

This war Stop being a medley story the moment the first oil tanker changed course in the Persian Gulf. What I mean is, Strait of Hormuz is the most important energy bottleneck on earth. Everybody knows it is the most important energy bottleneck on earth. And if it was the threat from Iran last time, this time Iran has partially done it. It is so narrow, IRGC has a lot of control over it. Just like in the Strait of Malacca, army/navy has control over it. Similarly, here the Iranians have control over it. And recently, China, Russia, and Iran have already conducted war games. So it is this narrow, 33 kilometers wide, you are hearing about it everywhere, everybody is talking about it. It is the width of a large city. So in this narrow passage, which holds 20% of the world's oil, one fifth of the world's oil and gas goes through, it is around 17 million barrels per day. There is no realistic alternative route except the Strait of Hormuz. If we close this passage, its consequences will not stop at any one border. Europe will pay, Japan will pay, India, South Korea, China, everybody pays the price. So a theory is floating around, which backs my argument that China is the target. It is that in Washington circles, there is a discussion going on, let's be honest, if this happens, what do we have to do? The hawkish people there say that this disruption should be allowed because it does not impact them as much as it impacts those countries, which I have just mentioned. So let's take this opportunity that the slowdown of China's energy supply can be slowed down. Trap Beijing in such an expensive moment as long as this congestion remains in the Strait of Hormuz, it remains closed, partially or completely. Iran keeps Beijing hit very badly from an energy security point of view. So the containment policy of China that is already going on is an added bonus. So imagine, on one hand, you are doing everything with technology and trade, imposing tariffs, treating them in the South China Sea, imagine all this. And from the other side, almost 90% of the oil and gas supplies go to China. If it is blocked for a few days, how badly it will hit China. So imagine, while the world is suffering, they are only having strategic designs in their minds.

1. Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters So Much

The Strait of Hormuz is widely considered the most critical energy chokepoint in the world.

Roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum liquids pass through it.

About 17–20 million barrels of oil per day transit this narrow route.

The strait is only about 33 km wide at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes even narrower.

Major exporters relying on it include:

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

Kuwait

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Any disruption—mines, missile threats, naval harassment—can immediately spike global energy prices.

2. Iran’s Ability to Disrupt the Strait

Iran does not need to completely close the strait to cause chaos. Even partial disruption could create panic in energy markets.

Tools often discussed include:

Fast attack boats operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

Naval mines

Anti-ship missiles from the Iranian coast

Drone and swarm tactics

Because the strait lies directly along Iran’s coastline, it has geographic leverage.

3. Who Would Be Hit the Hardest

While a disruption would affect everyone, Asian economies depend most on Gulf energy.

Countries heavily reliant on oil flowing through the strait include:

China

India

Japan

South Korea

China in particular imports a very large portion of its crude from the Middle East, making this choke point extremely sensitive for Beijing’s energy security.

4. Why Some Analysts Link This to U.S.–China Rivalry

In strategic discussions in United States policy circles, some analysts argue that any disruption could hurt China more than the U.S..

Reasons often cited:

The U.S. now produces large amounts of oil domestically due to shale production.

China remains heavily dependent on imported energy.

A prolonged disruption could raise China’s economic costs and slow industrial output.

This is why some geopolitical commentators connect the issue to U.S. containment strategies toward China.

5. Military Cooperation Around the Region

Recently, naval cooperation between:

China

Russia

Iran

has included joint exercises in waters near the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. These drills are often interpreted as signals against Western naval dominance in the region.

6. The Reality: Everyone Loses

Even though geopolitical strategists may speculate about advantages, the reality is:

Global oil prices would spike dramatically.

Shipping insurance costs would explode.

Financial markets could panic.

Economic growth worldwide would slow.

That means Europe, Asia, and even the United States would feel the shock.